While
so many count their losses after the appalling terrorist attacks on
Paris, one man might just be wondering if he'll find himself on the
right side of history.
Over the
last few days, Bashar al-Assad's removal from power in Syria has fallen
sharply down the list of international priorities.
On November 14, the Syria talks
in Vienna recognized the imperative of joint military action against
ISIS, the group that has taken responsibility for the Paris atrocities
that have so far killed 129 people. informal talks between presidents Putin and Obama at the G20 summit in Turkey
continued on this theme, while France redoubled its airstrikes against
Islamic State in Syria.These developments have come as the Syrian
dictator is on the ascendant.
Days
before the Paris attacks, his troops scored their first big victory
since the Russians intervened in Syria at the end of September.
They broke the siege on the Kweires air base in Aleppo province in the north of the country,
which had been surrounded by ISIS for almost two years. Omran al-Zoubi,
the Syrian information minister, spoke of defying the "terrorists", a
category that in government rhetoric includes both ISIS and the other
rebel groups against which al-Assad has been fighting for the past four
years.
Prior
to this victory, al-Assad's position had looked very weak. The
territory the Syrian government controls is down to a strip of land in
the west of the country (see pink area in map below). The area still
includes Damascus and a few important military bases, but represents
only a fraction of the country.
In
al-Assad's favour, the Western-backed rebel forces are scattered and
divided. Their different interests and motivations lack the necessary
political identity to build a stable government coalition. One thing the
Arab Spring taught us is that a common goal is not always enough to
create a stable country.
So
far the only force that has looked capable of achieving strategic
military objectives bears the banner of the caliphate: ISIS's conquest
of Mahin in central Syria earlier this month opened a clear path to the
capital, for instance, and deprived the government of important arms
depots.
So what happens now? The Vienna agreement calls on the warring Syrian parties to start talking by 1st January, 2016 and reach a ceasefire within six months. They are then to focus on drafting a new constitution with a view to holding elections in 2017 which will be closely monitored and will need to be free and fair.
This
is likely to make a lot of difference.
The nations involved -- the
U.S., UK, Russia, China, Germany and France -- agreed to support a
"U.N.-endorsed ceasefire-monitoring mission" to ensure that both
al-Assad's supporters and those standing in opposition to him abide by
it. This means that Russia and China agreed to go in under the U.N. blue
helmets -- having always been opposed to such coordinated efforts in
the past.
The
fact that Russia and the U.S. appear to be setting aside their
differences looks massive and should mean the Russians and the NATO
states will cooperate. The proposed peace talks would exclude ISIS,
which would still be open to military attacks even after a ceasefire
between al-Assad and the rebels had been put in place. Though the
Russians and U.S. still disagree on whether al-Assad would lead an
interim government ahead of the 2017 elections, they are mainly focused
on neutralising ISIS before the situation gets any more critical.
In
the weeks ahead, it looks as though al-Assad loyalists will now try to
take the south-western part of the country from the non-ISIS rebels,
perhaps still backed by Russian air raids. This would give the
psychological boost of reversing a failed offensive earlier in the year
and ensure that al-Assad's forces control a continuous strip of land all
the way to the Jordanian and Israeli borders. Al-Assad's other focus
will be to secure the city of Aleppo, Syria's largest. Where the
south-west is a battle against the rebels, Aleppo is partly rebel-held
and partly the domain of ISIS. Both battles look more achievable than
before, though it could be especially drawn out -- city struggles often
are.
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